In a very severe case of “Should’a, Could’a, Would’a”, the following news may destroy your day. Especially if you had the ability and means to have made it happen. You could’ve paid for a 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning Platinum for the price of the cheapest base model Pro trim. WHAT?
For some, we only like to look forward. Living in the past means we spend less time looking toward the future. And that’s great and all. But for others, living in the past affords some great learning points that make future decisions even BETTER. Here is one of those instances. For this article, we’ll be mostly living in the past. Pre-Covid.
What is the Shareholder X-Plan?
The X-Plan requires an entire article by itself to fully describe it. Since this article is not about all of those details, but still should be understood, we will quickly summarize the relevant points.
The Ford X-Plan is essentially the discount offerings by Ford to offer discounted new car pricing to those people who have closer relationships with Ford. Generally, employees, including full time, part-time and contract workers, spouses and retirees of eligible Partner companies (suppliers, fleets, etc.) and members of specific organizations or groups may qualify for X-Plan.
Qualified shareholders of Ford stock in most cases are considered to be a part of the Ford X-Plan as “Friends and Neighbors”. To qualify as a shareholder, you need to have owned at least 100 shares of stock for at least 6 months. Google X-Plan for a variety of explanations at your leisure.
What if you bought Ford stock?
Simply put, if you purchased $40,000 in Ford stock (NYSE:F) on the day the news of the upcoming 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning (not referred to as “Lightning” yet, mind you), you those shares would be worth $94,657.20 today. That’s basically paying for the lowest available optioned, the most inexpensive Ford Lightning (the Pro trim) and walking away with the ability to eventually drive off the dealer lot with the most expensive, most equipped, most luxurious Ford Lightning – the Platinum.
So, let’s break it down and do the quick math!
The Ford Lightning Platinum for the Price of a Pro – Numbers Broken Down
News of an Electric Ford F-150 has Hit the Masses
On February 5, 2019, pre-COVID, multiple internet news and blog outlets and truck/Ford enthusiast websites reported, with spy shots as proof, that the Ford Motor Company was working on a new upcoming all-electric F-150. View this article from FordAuthority.com as a quick example.
Once that news broke, the world began began fully swallowing perhaps the biggest truck news in modern history. Or ever, for that matter.
The Ford Motor Company Common Stock Price
On the day the news broke, February 5, 2019, the price for Ford’s stock opened at $8.75, and closed at $8.68 per share. This can be referenced in multiple places, but my quote was referenced at Nasdaq.com.
That said, if a lucky forward thinker with $40,000 aside in a new car budget were to have purchased all of that into Ford’s Common Stock at closing, they’d be holding onto about 4,571.42 shares of the company. Maybe they wanted the X-Plan benefits. Maybe they saw the real potential this news was going to do to it’s future stock price. Who knows. So they open up their E*TRADE app, and make the stock purchase.
Those many shares would now qualify them, in part, for the X-Plan, with well over the 100 share minimum requirement. Now, it’s time to wait 6 months.
They Surpass the 6 Month Shareholder Requirement for the Ford X-Plan
By September, they have had more than 6 months of 100 share ownership. On September 1, 2019, Ford’s share price closed at $9.18. So, while waiting for the qualifying ownership period to secure, they’ve gained around $1,965.00. All while just waiting. And following the news.
And the news is only going to get better. Well, aside from COVID and the market hit. So as we continue, let’s go by the following assumptions:
- They maintained their investment, believing in the fact that markets fluctuate.
- Regardless of any new Ford stock purchased at the much lower prices, we are using the initial $40,000 investment.
- They never sold (or “realized”) their investment for any kind of hard times, etc.
- They never saved another penny toward their future vehicle – no additional investments in Ford stock, and not even under the bed mattress.
On February 5, 2020, Their F-150 Ford Stock Investment Becomes Long-Term for Taxing purposes
On the year anniversary, that investment, untouched, became a long-term investment for capital gains tax purposes. For most people, long-term gains are taxed at a lower rate than short-term gains.
The average long-term capital gains tax, depending on personal scenario, is anywhere from 0-20%. For our example we will assume 20%.
More than a year goes by. As they patiently wait. And, they patiently follow the Ford Lightning news.
The News of the 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning becomes real on May 19, 2021.
On the day reservations opened up, Ford announces pricing on this all-new 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning. They announce the base entry model, monikered as the “Pro” and aimed toward primarily contractors and fleet customers, will begin pricing around $39,974. That’s pretty much at our example’s saved up budget!
Our person reserves their Lightning. They are part of the 20,000 people who reserved a Ford F-150 Lightning in the first 12 hours.
Continuing on, Ford also announces their top end of the Lightning trims, which are essentially “fully loaded”, will cost around $90, 474.
Also, at this time, our person’s stock price has raised in value from $8.75, to closing at $12.03 on May 19, 2021. That is a (Long-Term) gain of $14,994.26. Ignoring taxes at the moment, their $40,000 initial investment is now worth a total of around $55,000. Already, they are looking at a well equipped XLT. And they only paid a Pro’s price.
Now it’s November 11, 2021. And Here is Where They Stand in Ford Stock Value.
Midday, on the day this article was written, November 11, 2021, using the calculator provided by stockchoker.com, we now have the following numbers (with Ford stock prices mid $19.00 range):
- Total Profit from $40,000 investment on February 5, 2019 = $54,657.20
- Total Increase = 136.64%
- Annual Rate of Return = 36.35%
- TOTAL VALUE = $94,657.20
As you can see, they now have enough money to cash in, today, their long-term investment, bank $94,657.20 and wait for orders and delivery. Or they can wait. Let’s assume they cash in.
But, what about taxes? The long term rate of 20%, remember that? Of course THOSE will have to be paid. So, let’s dig further!
Long-Term Tax on the Realized $54,657.20 Profit at 20%
So, let’s say the individual in question were to set aside the taxes he knows he will be taxed. 20% of $54,657.20 equals $10, 931.
As a result, they put aside that exact amount in a special tax payment account he or she maintains. But then, they remember the federal $7,500 tax incentive from which they are likely to benefit! So, instead, they only put $3,431 aside. That tastes much better.
Remember, the tax benefit applies to the taxpayer at tax time. It will be up to them to deduct that from their taxes. It is likely to not be a drop in the vehicle’s sales price at the time of purchase.
So, we deduct the $3,431 from total vehicle money available. We take the $94,657.20, subtract $3,431, and we end up with about $91,226 available for purchase of the 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning….. PLATINUM! For the price of a Pro!
What About Tax, Tags, etc?
We don’t know what state and taxing locale our person is in, so let’s ignore tax and tags. The 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning itself, costs about $90,474. Our example is coming to the dealership with $91,226. They will leave the dealer with a brand new Lightning, and still be $752 richer.
So, there you have it! A 2022 Ford Lightning Platinum, fully loaded, for the price of the barest, most minimally loaded Pro trim level available. If only. It may be the worst “Should’s Could’a Would’a” any Lightning fan wanted to read all month.
X-Plan, Schmex-Plan. Turns out Ford is denying the opportunity to even use the X-Plan, as it was announced on October 25, 2021. Our example probably isn’t that disappointed to see the news on that one.
So, what do you think? Should our example cash out today?
Should our example person cash it in today? Stash the tax? Or perhaps ride it out even more? What do you think? What should I…..er, what would YOU do at this point? See poll below.